Despite a wealth of existing topical literature and the pervasive sensationalization of Chinese superpower status in the contemporary popular, policy and academic zeitgeist, existing paradigms of International Relations theory- specifically neorealism, the dominant voice in superpower discourse-lack the explanatory power necessary to accurately explain real world Chinese state behaviour and the manifestations of resultant inter-state polarisation along theoretical lines. This dissertation produces and outlines the tenets of a novel theoretical model that aims to explain the incarnations of aspiring superpower state behaviour: the incumbent-insurgent theory. This theory makes reference to newly solidified systemic forces such as the entrenchment of existing transnational diplomatic institutions and the recent hegemonization of neoliberal economic organisation to reject predefined neorealist predictions and criteria for superpower requirements and definitions of polarity. The analysis of Chinese state actions on the world stage through this theoretical lens yields the resounding answer that China may be the first realisation of an “insurgent” superpower (as juxtaposed to the incumbent superpower, the USA), able to polarise the internal policy decisions of “middle states” in zones of conflicting superpower interest by manufacturing an antagonistic dichotomy between American security patronage and Chinese economic patronage. This study is part of an already incredibly prevalent discussion on Chinese state behaviour and superpower bipolarity that presents long-reaching ramifications for both theoretical and policy discourse, and seeks to contribute to gaps left by traditional readings of neorealist literature.
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