Library Dissertation Showcase

Using multi-species distribution modelling to critically analyse causes of decline and potential recovery options of the Numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus)

  • Year of Publication:
  • 2023

The Myrmecobius fasciatus (Numbat) has been closely monitored for several decades due to its allocated status as endangered. A variety of conservation efforts have been undertaken in order to protect the species, however, species distribution models (SDMs) have yet to be used to identify suitable habitats for future occupation under different time scales extending to 2085 using different climatic scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 to compare against current climate trajectories. This study aims to fill this gap in the research by using SDMs alongside GIS to produce models and maps in efforts to identify appropriate locations for conservation efforts to be undertaken, primarily the relocation of the species. As a result of the methods used, several locations were identified across Australia that would be suitable for Numbats, with regions near Adelaide highlighted as being the most appropriate due to their predicted presence throughout the time periods and climatic scenarios modelled. Previous relocation efforts in this area have been successful which supports the models produced by proving that the area has been able to support the species. The study also identified that changing climate would pose the greatest threat to the future of the species, largely due to the effects it will have on Eucalyptus forests, the Numbat’s main habitat. Therefore, the identification of sites around Adelaide, that will not be impacted to an extent that Eucalyptus cover declines to levels unable to sustain Numbat populations, is an important step in the future conservation of the species.

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